Here’s the short version:
If Florida kills most property taxes but keeps some (like school/emergency), tax lien and tax deed investing won’t disappear—but it will shrink, change shape, and get more competitive.
Let’s break it down in plain language.
1. What tax liens and tax deeds actually depend on
Tax lien and tax deed businesses exist because of unpaid property taxes.
- Tax lien state:
The county sells a lien (IOU) on unpaid taxes. Investors pay the taxes, earn interest, and maybe eventually get the property if the owner never pays. - Tax deed state:
If taxes stay unpaid long enough, the county sells the property itself at auction to recover the taxes.
So the whole business model depends on:
- There being property taxes.
- Enough people failing to pay them.
If Florida removes most property taxes on homestead properties (primary homes) but keeps school/emergency taxes, you’re not going to zero—you’re going to less.
2. If most property taxes go away, what changes?
If HJR 203 (or something like it) actually becomes law, it would exempt homestead properties from non-school property taxes starting 2027. ClickOrlando propertyexemption.com
That means:
- Total tax bill on a homestead drops a lot.
Only school taxes (and maybe some special things like emergency services) remain. - Fewer people will fall behind on taxes.
Smaller bills = easier to pay. - Counties will have less tax to collect through liens/deeds.
Because there’s simply less being billed.
So:
Number of tax liens and tax deeds on homestead properties would likely drop.
Not vanish. But drop.
3. What happens to the business side?
Think like an investor or someone building a business around this:
A. Deal flow shrinks
- Fewer delinquent accounts:
If the average tax bill is cut in half (or more), fewer owners default. - Smaller lien amounts:
If only school/emergency taxes remain, each lien might be for a smaller dollar amount.
Result:
Less volume, smaller tickets, more competition for what’s left.
B. Investor behavior changes
When there are fewer liens/deeds:
- Big money crowds in:
Institutions and experienced investors will chase the remaining liens harder. - Returns might compress:
More bidders = lower yields at auction. - People chase riskier stuff:
Investors may move toward:- Non-homestead properties (rentals, commercial, land)
- Other states with higher property taxes
- Different distressed-asset plays (code liens, HOA liens, etc.)
So the easy “just show up at the county auction and grab deals” era gets harder.
4. Homestead vs non-homestead: the quiet twist
Most of the current proposals focus on homestead properties—people’s primary homes. Tallahassee Democrat Jacksonville Today
That means:
- Homestead (primary residence):
Big tax relief → fewer tax delinquencies → fewer liens/deeds. - Non-homestead (rentals, second homes, commercial):
May still be taxed more heavily, or differently.
So the tax lien/deed world might shift to:
- More investor-owned properties in the pipeline (landlords, flippers, speculators).
- Fewer “grandma’s house” situations where a homeowner falls behind.
For a business, that means:
- More “cold” deals, fewer emotional/tragic ones.
- More professional counterparties (landlords, LLCs, etc.).
5. Counties still need money—so something else will rise
If you take away most property tax, local governments still have to pay for:
- Roads
- Trash
- Parks
- Admin
- And more
So they’ll likely lean harder on:
- Sales tax
- Tourism taxes
- Fees, permits, special assessments
- Maybe new types of local charges
Here’s the key insight:
When one revenue stream shrinks, governments often create or expand others.
For tax lien/deed businesses, that could mean:
- More “special assessments” or fees that can also become liens.
- New categories of collectible debt tied to property.
So while traditional property tax liens might shrink, other lien types could grow.
6. What this means if you’re building a business around it
If you’re 20 and thinking like a long-term operator, here’s the deeper play:
A. Don’t build a business on one law
If your whole model is:
“I buy Florida property tax liens forever”
…you’re exposed. Laws change. Voters react. Governors push new agendas. Jacksonville Today propertyexemption.com
Better mindset:
- “I specialize in distressed property opportunities created by government and legal systems.”
That can include:- Tax liens
- Tax deeds
- Code enforcement liens
- HOA/condo liens
- Foreclosures
- Probate, etc.
B. Shift from “auction chaser” to “distress ecosystem” player
If property tax liens shrink:
- Learn multiple states.
Some states will still have heavy property taxes and big lien markets. - Learn multiple distress channels.
Don’t just know the tax auction—know code enforcement, HOA, and court records. - Offer services, not just investing.
You can:- Help owners avoid losing their homes (consulting, negotiation, education).
- Help investors analyze and manage distressed properties.
- Build data tools or content around where the next opportunities are.
7. Worst-case vs realistic scenario
Worst-case for tax lien/deed investors in Florida:
- Homestead property taxes mostly vanish.
- Delinquencies drop hard.
- Auctions get tiny and hyper-competitive.
- Returns fall.
- Many small investors quit.
Realistic scenario:
- The proposal gets watered down, delayed, or changed by the Senate or voters. Pensacola News Journal ClickOrlando
- Some property taxes remain in more categories than people expect.
- The market shrinks, but doesn’t die.
- Smart players adapt to:
- Non-homestead properties
- Other states
- Other lien/distress types
8. Simple bottom line
If Florida kills most property taxes:
- There will be fewer tax liens and tax deeds.
- The easy money gets harder.
- Big players will fight over what’s left.
- You’ll need to be more creative and more educated to win.
But if you think like a strategist instead of a one-trick investor:
You don’t die with one law change—you just change which “broken money systems” you study and profit from.